A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
