Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
